My Initial Post - The U.S. Senate - Who will Have Control in 2007
First and foremost, let me thank Mr. Colin Manning - co-proprietor of this blog - for FINALLY giving me posting rights on this blog. (By the way, happy 30th bday. I hope people buy you alot). I've tried to obtain said rights for years. But, my nemesis, Tim, has always blocked my efforts. Finally, a deal was struck. If I would travel to Tulsa, Oklahoma, and dance in front of 300 people in a Carol Channing like wig, I would be granted rights. Well, I'm posting now, so you can be sure I did it. IT IS GOOD TO BE HERE.
Now, there are many things I could type on here for my original post. I could endorse my friend J. Staley Heatly. I could talk about how NOT to make Colin turn into the incredible Hulk. I could talk about Tim's love of Native American gaming rights. Or, I could talk about Canon's fetish of cuff-links - which he refers to as Cuff-i-Link-us.
But, I will take my first post seriously and talk about an issue I know well - The U.S. Senate and politics.
Much has been made of the possibility of the Dems taking control of the Senate. But, let's look at the facts. Today, the Senate has 55 Republicans and 44 Democrats and 1 Independent who is in fact a Democrat (Jeffords). For the Dems to win control of the Senate, they have to win 6 seats. 6 seats is alot. And, the truth of the matter is that the Republicans only have 5 vulnerable seats. Meanwhile, the Republicans challengers in a few states could actually win.
Here are the vulnerable Republican seats.
1) Senator Rick Santorum (Pa)- he is down in polling by double digits to Bob Casey. Santorum may be down, but he is a very strong closer. This race seems like the most likely for the Republican's to lose - but don't count Santorum out.
2) Senator Lincoln Chafee (RI) - Chafee has to win a hard fought Republican primary first to get the chance to face the Democrat - Whitehouse in November. This is no easy task. Chafee's Republican primary opponent, in polling, seems to get crushed by the Democrat. Chafee - on the other hand, is pretty much in a statistical deadheat with Whitehouse.
3) Senator Mike DeWine (Oh) - he is an outstanding Senator from Ohio. I don't know why everyone wouldn't vote for him. Nevertheles, a far left wing liberal is taking this moderate Republican on and the democrat is up in the polls now. As of now, Dewine is down about 6 points.
4) Senator Jim Talent (Mo) - he is down in the polls - but only by about 2 points in polls I have seen. This promises to be yet another close race.
5) Conrad Burns (MT) - he is down in the polls too, but not by double digits.
These 5 are the only 5 Republican seats in serious jeopardy. So, for the Dems to take back the Senate, where do they get their 6th pickup seat? John Kyl in Arizona isn't going to lose. No way will George Allen lose in Virginia. The only chance the Dems have in addition to these 5 is for Harold Ford Jr to win in Tennessee. The Republicans just nominated Chatanooga Mayor Corker to take on Ford in the race to take Bill Frist's Senate seat, who is retiring. Corker is polling nearly 10 points ahead of Ford.
But, not only are the Dems unlikely to pick up 6 Republican seats, they may not hold onto all of their own.
1) Senator Paul Sarbanes is retiring. Who will Maryland choose to run as a Democrat - Congressman Cardin or former Congressman Mfume. Mfume is leading in the polls. The problems with him are many. But, most problematic for the Democrats is that polls show that Cardin easily defeats the Republican Lt. Gov. Michael Steele while Steele beats Mfume.
2) Senator Mark Dayton is retiring. The Republican candidate is Congressman Mark Kennedy. This race is going to be very, very tight.
3) New Jersey - Senator Menendez is being challenged by Tom Kean - a state senator and son of one of New Jersey's favorite politicians. Another very tight race.
4) Washington - Senator Maria Cantwell's race could seriously tighten as well.
So, while I will say this with a caveat because much can change in the months before the election - the facts now appear to show that the Democrats have very little chance of winning back the United States Senate. And, for this, all Americans should be grateful.
Tim/Colin/Manning/Mom-Martha - does this meet your standards for a first post?
Now, there are many things I could type on here for my original post. I could endorse my friend J. Staley Heatly. I could talk about how NOT to make Colin turn into the incredible Hulk. I could talk about Tim's love of Native American gaming rights. Or, I could talk about Canon's fetish of cuff-links - which he refers to as Cuff-i-Link-us.
But, I will take my first post seriously and talk about an issue I know well - The U.S. Senate and politics.
Much has been made of the possibility of the Dems taking control of the Senate. But, let's look at the facts. Today, the Senate has 55 Republicans and 44 Democrats and 1 Independent who is in fact a Democrat (Jeffords). For the Dems to win control of the Senate, they have to win 6 seats. 6 seats is alot. And, the truth of the matter is that the Republicans only have 5 vulnerable seats. Meanwhile, the Republicans challengers in a few states could actually win.
Here are the vulnerable Republican seats.
1) Senator Rick Santorum (Pa)- he is down in polling by double digits to Bob Casey. Santorum may be down, but he is a very strong closer. This race seems like the most likely for the Republican's to lose - but don't count Santorum out.
2) Senator Lincoln Chafee (RI) - Chafee has to win a hard fought Republican primary first to get the chance to face the Democrat - Whitehouse in November. This is no easy task. Chafee's Republican primary opponent, in polling, seems to get crushed by the Democrat. Chafee - on the other hand, is pretty much in a statistical deadheat with Whitehouse.
3) Senator Mike DeWine (Oh) - he is an outstanding Senator from Ohio. I don't know why everyone wouldn't vote for him. Nevertheles, a far left wing liberal is taking this moderate Republican on and the democrat is up in the polls now. As of now, Dewine is down about 6 points.
4) Senator Jim Talent (Mo) - he is down in the polls - but only by about 2 points in polls I have seen. This promises to be yet another close race.
5) Conrad Burns (MT) - he is down in the polls too, but not by double digits.
These 5 are the only 5 Republican seats in serious jeopardy. So, for the Dems to take back the Senate, where do they get their 6th pickup seat? John Kyl in Arizona isn't going to lose. No way will George Allen lose in Virginia. The only chance the Dems have in addition to these 5 is for Harold Ford Jr to win in Tennessee. The Republicans just nominated Chatanooga Mayor Corker to take on Ford in the race to take Bill Frist's Senate seat, who is retiring. Corker is polling nearly 10 points ahead of Ford.
But, not only are the Dems unlikely to pick up 6 Republican seats, they may not hold onto all of their own.
1) Senator Paul Sarbanes is retiring. Who will Maryland choose to run as a Democrat - Congressman Cardin or former Congressman Mfume. Mfume is leading in the polls. The problems with him are many. But, most problematic for the Democrats is that polls show that Cardin easily defeats the Republican Lt. Gov. Michael Steele while Steele beats Mfume.
2) Senator Mark Dayton is retiring. The Republican candidate is Congressman Mark Kennedy. This race is going to be very, very tight.
3) New Jersey - Senator Menendez is being challenged by Tom Kean - a state senator and son of one of New Jersey's favorite politicians. Another very tight race.
4) Washington - Senator Maria Cantwell's race could seriously tighten as well.
So, while I will say this with a caveat because much can change in the months before the election - the facts now appear to show that the Democrats have very little chance of winning back the United States Senate. And, for this, all Americans should be grateful.
Tim/Colin/Manning/Mom-Martha - does this meet your standards for a first post?
1 Comments:
As tempting as it for me to shitcan this post, I admit it meets the (bare minimum) standards for a first post...
Be aware that the standards for your second post will be even higher and each successive post will be subjected to even greater scrutiny.
We like to think of this as our 'reverse Canon' standard for evaluating posts...
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